The counterfactual, with a placebo

Waterflood. Which change earned the barrels.

Workover, pump-speed and injection changes scored against a counterfactual, with a placebo and an interval. Injector–producer connectivity, unidentifiable pairs flagged. Scored against the open libraries on planted truth; the results stay here. Proposals only; never sets a rate.

The family

Six products. One engine.

How they fit together

Reconcile. Attribute. Propose.

Reconcile

Rates against separator and fiscal totals, first.

a prerequisite

Attribute

The counterfactual, the placebo, the interval.

Uplift · Pair · Tank · Placebo

Propose

Allocation and programmes, as proposals.

Allocate · Dose
The engine

Capacitance–resistance models with producer coupling, beside staggered difference-in-differences, synthetic control and synthetic difference-in-differences with placebo inference

Wavepin watches a pipeline in seconds. Sweep reads a field over months. No shared physics; the same tournament and honest status.

50 %median bias of the physical counterfactual
86 %of planted uplifts inside its 90 % interval
11 %of placebo windows called significant
70 %error on injection changes, where no panel method applies

Tournament t003, 749 intervention and placebo windows on synthetic waterfloods with planted truth (the revised physical counterfactual; earlier runs are in the ledger). The bar and the result are on the proof page. All the numbers →

The film

The whole story in 80 seconds

Where it fits

Built for the assets you run

Mature onshore floods

Rod-pumped producers, decades of data.

Offshore injection

Few wells, expensive changes.

Gas-lift fields

Lift changes as interventions.

Reserves teams

Improved-recovery evidence.

The rest of the harness

Same engine, other assets.

All of the Oil Operations Harness ↗

Sweep — Waterflood. Which change earned the barrels.